One Day Made 2025’s Market
April 9th explains this year’s gains, proof that missing a few days can reshape long-term returns.
A Handful of Days Can Define the Market
When we look back on any given year in the stock market, it’s easy to think big trends or long-term themes drive returns. But the truth is, the difference between an “up year” and a “down year” for the S&P 500 often comes down to just a handful of trading days.
Consider this:
In 2022, there were 35 more down days than up days. The S&P fell -19.4%.
In 2023, there were 23 more up days than down days. The index gained +24.2%.
This year so far, we’ve had 22 more up days than down days—and the market is up +9.0%.
That’s less than 40 trading days or about 16% of the calendar that can ultimately tip the scale for the entire year.
The Power of a Few Days
This year’s gains are even more concentrated than usual.
One single day: April 9th — essentially explains the market’s entire year-to-date return. On that day, the S&P 500 jumped +9.5% after President Trump announced a temporary pause on new tariffs.
It’s not often that one day carries that much weight, but history shows this is not unusual:
In 2023, just 14 days “made” the year’s returns.
In 2024, it was 15 days.
And even in bear markets like 2022, just a few outsized down days created most of the damage.
What’s Driving the Market in 2025
This year, U.S. trade policy has been the biggest catalyst — shifting sentiment between fear and relief depending on whether tariffs were ramping up or being dialed back.
At the same time, leadership from Big Tech (Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta) and strength in Industrials have been key drivers of positive momentum.
Despite all the noise, the “tug of war” between bulls and bears has tilted in favor of the bulls.
The result: more up days than down, and a market that’s quietly grinding higher.
The Takeaway for Investors
The lesson is simple but powerful:
Markets don’t rise or fall in a straight line. A small number of days often make the biggest difference in long-term returns. Trying to time those days is nearly impossible.
That’s why staying invested matters!
Missing just a handful of the market’s best days can dramatically reduce long-term results. Instead of worrying about every daily swing, focus on your plan, your allocation, and your long-term goals.
We remain positive on U.S. large-cap stocks. Strong economic and corporate fundamentals should be enough to deliver 10–15 more “good days” than bad over the rest of the year.
Because when it comes to investing, sometimes just a few days really do make all the difference.