Markets & War: What History Says
Perspective during uncertainty
Over the weekend, conflict escalated in Iran and across the Middle East.
First and foremost, this is a human tragedy. Our thoughts are with those impacted.
Markets will react. They always do.
But here’s the important context in three charts for a quick minute overview.
1-Year Forward Returns After Major Geopolitical Events
Short-term volatility? Yes.
Long-term damage? Rarely.
Historically, the S&P 500 index has averaged +14% one year after major geopolitical events.
Short-Term vs. 12-Month Returns
1-month returns are mixed.
12-month returns are positive most of the time.
Markets price in fear quickly and move forward before headlines improve.
Markets and Wars Since 1927
World War II.
Vietnam.
9/11.
Iraq.
Ukraine.
Through it all, markets have continued higher over time.
What We’re Watching Now
Energy prices
Inflation implications
Global supply chain risk
Policy responses
Expect volatility. That’s normal.
Reacting emotionally rarely rewards long-term investors.
At Sandbox, our job isn’t to predict the next headline. It’s to help you stay disciplined when headlines feel overwhelming.
If you want to talk through positioning, we’re here.
Live more. Worry less.